Volatility & Variance: Reading the Risk Fingerprint
XLI.US (Industrial Select Sector SPDR® Fund) carries an annualised volatility of 18.9%, categorised as elevated relative to the long-run US equity benchmark of approximately 15%. VIS.US (Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares) registers at 19.4%, a elevated reading by the same standard.
XLI.US and VIS.US carry virtually identical annualised volatility — both within a fraction of a percentage point of each other — making the risk profile of either fund essentially interchangeable on this dimension.
On the downside, XLI.US's maximum peak-to-trough drawdown of 27.2% represents a severe bear-market drawdown over the study period. VIS.US's worst drawdown of 27.9% was a severe bear-market drawdown. XLI.US demonstrated stronger capital preservation during the period's worst stress events, which is particularly relevant for US investors approaching retirement or drawing down a portfolio.
When evaluating these two funds for a US-domiciled portfolio, it is important to consider that volatility and drawdown metrics are calculated on trailing historical data. Past standard deviations do not guarantee future behaviour, particularly around US Federal Reserve policy shifts, which have historically been the primary driver of cross-asset correlation breakdowns.