Risk Metrics

Max Drawdown

The largest peak-to-trough decline in the asset's value over the measurement period.

Formula

Max Drawdown = (Trough Value − Peak Value) / Peak Value

Maximum Drawdown (MDD) measures the steepest decline an investment experienced from its highest recorded point to its subsequent lowest point, before a new high was reached. It is expressed as a negative percentage and is one of the most critical risk metrics for any investor.

Unlike volatility (which measures how much prices fluctuate around their average), drawdown captures the real investor experience: how much of your money could you have lost if you had bought at the worst possible time before a crash?

On StressTest.pro, max drawdown is calculated across the full daily price series for the measurement period. For example, NVIDIA's max drawdown in the last 10 years was approximately -63%, meaning investors who bought at the 2021 peak saw their position lose nearly two-thirds of its value before recovery. This matters enormously for portfolio sizing and risk tolerance planning.

A good rule of thumb: if an asset's max drawdown exceeds your emotional pain threshold, the position size is too large, regardless of long-term CAGR.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a reasonable max drawdown for a stock portfolio?

Diversified equity portfolios typically see max drawdowns of 30–55% during severe bear markets (e.g. 2008, 2022). Single stocks can see drawdowns of 60–90%. Investors with a low risk tolerance should target portfolios with historical max drawdowns below 25–30%.

How is max drawdown different from volatility?

Volatility measures how much prices fluctuate day-to-day. Max drawdown measures the worst sustained loss from peak to trough. An investment can have low daily volatility but still experience a severe drawdown during a market crisis.

See Max Drawdown in Action

Run a real backtest on any stock or ETF to see Max Drawdown computed live from 10 years of data.

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Disclaimer

The information provided by StressTest.pro is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Calculations are based on historical data and statistical approximations.