Volatility & Variance: Reading the Risk Fingerprint
XLE.US (Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund) carries an annualised volatility of 30.0%, categorised as high relative to the long-run US equity benchmark of approximately 15%. VDE.US (Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF Shares) registers at 30.6%, a high reading by the same standard.
XLE.US and VDE.US carry virtually identical annualised volatility — both within a fraction of a percentage point of each other — making the risk profile of either fund essentially interchangeable on this dimension.
On the downside, XLE.US's maximum peak-to-trough drawdown of 58.6% represents a catastrophic peak-to-trough collapse over the study period. VDE.US's worst drawdown of 61.6% was a catastrophic peak-to-trough collapse. XLE.US demonstrated stronger capital preservation during the period's worst stress events, which is particularly relevant for US investors approaching retirement or drawing down a portfolio.
When evaluating these two funds for a US-domiciled portfolio, it is important to consider that volatility and drawdown metrics are calculated on trailing historical data. Past standard deviations do not guarantee future behaviour, particularly around US Federal Reserve policy shifts, which have historically been the primary driver of cross-asset correlation breakdowns.