Volatility & Variance: Reading the Risk Fingerprint
VTV.US (Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares) carries an annualised volatility of 14.7%, categorised as moderate relative to the long-run US equity benchmark of approximately 15%. VUG.US (Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares) registers at 18.4%, a elevated reading by the same standard.
VUG.US is marginally more volatile than VTV.US by 3.8% annualised. For most US long-term investors this difference is unlikely to be psychologically meaningful, though it will compound over multi-decade holding periods.
On the downside, VTV.US's maximum peak-to-trough drawdown of 25.0% represents a severe bear-market drawdown over the study period. VUG.US's worst drawdown of 33.2% was a severe bear-market drawdown. VTV.US demonstrated stronger capital preservation during the period's worst stress events, which is particularly relevant for US investors approaching retirement or drawing down a portfolio.
When evaluating these two funds for a US-domiciled portfolio, it is important to consider that volatility and drawdown metrics are calculated on trailing historical data. Past standard deviations do not guarantee future behaviour, particularly around US Federal Reserve policy shifts, which have historically been the primary driver of cross-asset correlation breakdowns.