VGT.USvsXLK.US

10-Year Study

The Verdict

Over the synchronized 10-year period measured, VGT.US historically led across 12 distinct risk and return vectors.
VGT.US generated a 10-year CAGR of 23.8% (Max Drawdown: 32.5%), while XLK.US generated 23.7% (Max Drawdown: 31.2%).

VGT.US
8
metric wins
23.8% CAGR
VS
XLK.US
4
metric wins
23.7% CAGR
VGT.US led on more metrics

Head-to-Head StatisticsiDetailed side-by-side breakdown of return and risk metrics.

10Y CAGRCAGRCompound Annual Growth Rate — the annualized rate of return over a period, accounting for compounding.Click for full definition →
VGT.US
+23.8%
VS
XLK.US
+23.7%
5Y CAGRCAGRCompound Annual Growth Rate — the annualized rate of return over a period, accounting for compounding.Click for full definition →
VGT.US
+19.1%
VS
XLK.US
+20.2%
3Y CAGRCAGRCompound Annual Growth Rate — the annualized rate of return over a period, accounting for compounding.Click for full definition →
VGT.US
+32.4%
VS
XLK.US
+31.6%
1Y CAGRCAGRCompound Annual Growth Rate — the annualized rate of return over a period, accounting for compounding.Click for full definition →
VGT.US
+33.5%
VS
XLK.US
+38.1%
Max DrawdownMax DrawdownThe largest peak-to-trough decline in the asset's value over the measurement period.Click for full definition →
lower is better
VGT.US
-32.5%
VS
XLK.US
-31.2%
Sharpe RatioSharpe RatioRisk-adjusted return: how much excess return you earn per unit of total risk (volatility).Click for full definition →
VGT.US
1.06
VS
XLK.US
1.04
Sortino RatioSortino RatioLike Sharpe, but only penalizes downside volatility — a more accurate risk measure for asymmetric return distributions.Click for full definition →
VGT.US
1.86
VS
XLK.US
1.82
Ann. VolatilityAnnualized VolatilityThe annualized standard deviation of an asset's returns — a measure of how much prices fluctuate.Click for full definition →
lower is better
VGT.US
+20.8%
VS
XLK.US
+20.9%
% Positive Years% Positive YearsThe percentage of calendar years in the measurement period where the asset delivered a positive return.Click for full definition →
VGT.US
+90.0%
VS
XLK.US
+80.0%
Dividend YieldDividend YieldAnnual dividend paid per share divided by the current share price — expressed as a percentage income return.Click for full definition →
VGT.US
+0.4%
VS
XLK.US
+0.4%
10Y Income ($10k)
VGT.US
$2,858
VS
XLK.US
$0
BetaBetaA measure of an asset's sensitivity to broad market movements relative to a benchmark (e.g. S&P 500).Click for full definition →
lower = less market sensitivity
VGT.US
1.44
VS
XLK.US
1.43

VGT.US vs XLK.US: In-Depth AnalysisiData-driven narrative breakdown of volatility, sector exposure, and income characteristics.

Volatility & Variance: Reading the Risk Fingerprint

VGT.US (Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares) carries an annualised volatility of 20.8%, categorised as elevated relative to the long-run US equity benchmark of approximately 15%. XLK.US (Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund) registers at 20.9%, a elevated reading by the same standard.

VGT.US and XLK.US carry virtually identical annualised volatility — both within a fraction of a percentage point of each other — making the risk profile of either fund essentially interchangeable on this dimension.

On the downside, VGT.US's maximum peak-to-trough drawdown of 32.5% represents a severe bear-market drawdown over the study period. XLK.US's worst drawdown of 31.2% was a severe bear-market drawdown. XLK.US demonstrated stronger capital preservation characteristics, absorbing market shocks with less peak-to-trough damage.

When evaluating these two funds for a US-domiciled portfolio, it is important to consider that volatility and drawdown metrics are calculated on trailing historical data. Past standard deviations do not guarantee future behaviour, particularly around US Federal Reserve policy shifts, which have historically been the primary driver of cross-asset correlation breakdowns.

US Market Sector Exposure & Concentration Risk

VGT.US is positioned primarily within US Equity. XLK.US's exposure tilts toward US Equity. This sector divergence is one of the key structural drivers of the return and risk differences observed between the two funds over the study window.

For US investors building a diversified portfolio, the sector overlap — or lack thereof — between these two funds directly affects the marginal diversification benefit of holding both. Because both funds draw from the same US sector universe, holding both is unlikely to meaningfully reduce concentration risk beyond what either fund provides individually. An allocation to an uncorrelated asset class — such as US Treasury bonds (TLT) or commodities (PDBC) — would provide greater portfolio-level risk reduction.

Sector concentration is particularly consequential in the US equity market, where the top five S&P 500 holdings — Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) — have at times represented over 25% of the total index by market capitalisation. Funds with heavy US Technology exposure amplify this mega-cap concentration risk, while broader market or equal-weight funds dilute it.

Dividend Yield, Income Generation & US Tax Considerations

VGT.US currently yields 0.36% annually, while XLK.US yields 0.42%. On a $10,000 initial investment held over the study period, VGT.US generated approximately $2,858 in cumulative income distributions versus $0 for XLK.US — a gap of $2,858 in favour of VGT.US.

For US taxable account holders, the character of dividend distributions matters as much as the yield itself. Qualified dividends — those from US corporations held longer than the required 60-day holding period — are taxed at preferential long-term capital gains rates (0%, 15%, or 20% depending on income bracket). Non-qualified or ordinary dividends are taxed as ordinary income, which can reach 37% for high earners. US investors should consult their own tax advisors to understand which distribution category applies to each fund's payout history.

Income-focused US investors — particularly those using tax-advantaged accounts such as a 401(k), IRA, or Roth IRA — can compound dividend distributions without immediate tax drag. In a taxable brokerage account, a higher-yielding fund may generate less after-tax wealth than a lower-yielding fund with equivalent total return, depending on the investor's marginal tax rate. The total return (price appreciation plus reinvested dividends) is generally the more complete measure of long-term performance.

XLK.US's higher yield of 0.42% may offer more immediate income utility for US investors prioritising cash flow, though VGT.US's lower yield may reflect greater internal reinvestment and growth orientation within its underlying holdings.

Historical Trajectory

Growth of $10,000 Over 10 Years

Annual Returns Comparison

Performance Consistency

Rolling 12-Month Returns

Risk & Factor X-Ray AnalysisiAnalyzes downside volatility and macro factor exposures.

Proprietary StressScore™= round((Annualised Volatility × 0.5 + |Max Drawdown| × 0.5) × 100)

27/100
VGT.US
Moderate Stress
Vol
20.8%
MDD
-32.5%
26/100
XLK.US
Moderate Stress
Vol
20.9%
MDD
-31.2%

Historical Drawdowns

Return Correlation

99%
Pearson Correlation Coefficient

Highly correlated. Moving almost perfectly in tandem, providing minimal diversification benefit when held together.

Risk X-Ray Macro Factor Exposure Mapping

VGT.US Factor Exposure
View full factor risk breakdown
FactorRisk Exposure
VTI.US29.0%
VEA.US-2.4%
VWO.US0.4%
QQQ.US72.1%
VTV.US2.8%
IJR.US-5.1%
QUAL.US-4.6%
SHV.US6.6%
TLT.US2.2%
LQD.US-0.9%
HYG.US0.5%
GLD.US-0.1%
USO.US-0.4%
VNQ.US-2.7%
BTC-USD.CC0.5%
CPER.US0.7%
VIX.INDX-1.4%
UUP.US-0.4%
TIP.US-0.2%
Idiosyncratic3.5%
XLK.US Factor Exposure
View full factor risk breakdown
FactorRisk Exposure
VTI.US-4.1%
VEA.US-3.2%
VWO.US0.5%
QQQ.US73.0%
VTV.US9.2%
IJR.US-5.6%
QUAL.US-0.5%
SHV.US27.5%
TLT.US0.7%
LQD.US-0.2%
HYG.US1.7%
GLD.US-0.0%
USO.US-0.3%
VNQ.US-2.1%
BTC-USD.CC-0.3%
CPER.US0.9%
VIX.INDX-0.6%
UUP.US-0.2%
TIP.US0.3%
Idiosyncratic3.4%

VGT.US vs XLK.US: Fees, Fund Structure & Portfolio Fundamentals

Side-by-side metric evaluation across valuation, profitability, fees, structure, and balance-sheet health.

Metric
VGT.US
XLK.US
Fund Structure & Fees
Expense Ratio
0.10%
0.09%
Assets Under Management (AUM)
$140.3B
$116.7B
Holdings Count
317
50
Valuation Multiples
Portfolio P/E Ratio
Price-to-Sales (P/S)
6.31x
7.61x
Price-to-Book (P/B)
8.27x
9.37x
Dividend Yield
Annual Dividend Yield
0.4%
0.4%
Market Sentiment
Short Squeeze Risk
Low
Low

Momentum & Macro PositioningiCompares relative price trends, moving averages, and market sensitivity.

50-Day SMA

VGT.US-2.8%
XLK.US-4.1%

200-Day SMA

VGT.US+5.6%
XLK.US+13.1%

Beta (Market Risk)

VGT.US1.44
XLK.US1.43

Trend SignalGolden Cross & Death CrossTechnical chart patterns that occur when a short-term moving average crosses over a long-term moving average.Click for full definition →

VGT.US
GOLDEN CROSS
XLK.US
GOLDEN CROSS

RSI (14-Day)Relative Strength Index (RSI)A momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements to identify overbought or oversold conditions.Click for full definition →

VGT.US
44
Neutral
XLK.US
42
Neutral

Frequently Asked Questions

How did VGT.US compare to XLK.US historically?

VGT.US (Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares) led across 12 measured metrics over the 20162026 study window, including higher risk-adjusted returns. That said, XLK.US may appeal to investors prioritizing income or lower volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What is the 10-year CAGR of VGT.US vs XLK.US?

Over the 20162026 study period, VGT.US produced an annualized return (CAGR) of 23.8% while XLK.US produced 23.7%. A ${10,000} investment in VGT.US would have grown to approximately $85,801, compared to $83,869 for XLK.US.

What is the maximum drawdown of VGT.US vs XLK.US?

VGT.US experienced a peak-to-trough drawdown of 32.5% (2022 was its worst year at -29.7%), versus 31.2% for XLK.US (worst year 2022 at -27.7%). A smaller maximum drawdown indicates lower downside risk and is particularly important for investors close to or in retirement.

How correlated are VGT.US and XLK.US?

VGT.US and XLK.US have a Pearson return correlation of 99% over the study period. This very high correlation means the two ETFs move almost in lockstep. Holding both in the same portfolio provides minimal diversification benefit — you're largely doubling exposure to the same risk factors.

Which ETF has a better Sharpe ratio — VGT.US or XLK.US?

VGT.US has a Sharpe ratio of 1.06 versus 1.04 for XLK.US. The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility) relative to a risk-free rate. VGT.US delivered better risk-adjusted returns over the study period. VGT.US had annualized volatility of 20.8% vs 20.9% for XLK.US.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend — VGT.US or XLK.US?

VGT.US has a dividend yield of 0.36%, while XLK.US yields 0.42%. On a $10,000 investment, VGT.US paid approximately $2,858 in cumulative income vs $0 for XLK.US over the study period. Income-focused investors should weigh dividend yield alongside total return (price appreciation + dividends), since a lower-yielding ETF can still produce superior total returns through capital gains.

Popular ETF Comparisons

Build a Portfolio with VGT.US or XLK.US

Want to see how exactly these ETFs impact your actual portfolio? Run a Monte Carlo simulation or DCA backtest instantly on StressTest.pro.

Run a Custom Backtest