Volatility & Variance: Reading the Risk Fingerprint
VCSH.US (Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares) carries an annualised volatility of 3.0%, categorised as low relative to the long-run US equity benchmark of approximately 15%. SHY.US (iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF) registers at 1.7%, a low reading by the same standard.
VCSH.US is marginally more volatile than SHY.US by 1.3% annualised. For most US long-term investors this difference is unlikely to be psychologically meaningful, though it will compound over multi-decade holding periods.
On the downside, VCSH.US's maximum peak-to-trough drawdown of 8.6% represents a shallow correction over the study period. SHY.US's worst drawdown of 5.4% was a shallow correction. SHY.US demonstrated stronger capital preservation characteristics, absorbing market shocks with less peak-to-trough damage.
When evaluating these two funds for a US-domiciled portfolio, it is important to consider that volatility and drawdown metrics are calculated on trailing historical data. Past standard deviations do not guarantee future behaviour, particularly around US Federal Reserve policy shifts, which have historically been the primary driver of cross-asset correlation breakdowns.