Volatility & Variance: Reading the Risk Fingerprint
QMOM.US (Alpha Architect U.S. Quantitative Momentum ETF) carries an annualised volatility of 22.2%, categorised as elevated relative to the long-run US equity benchmark of approximately 15%. SPY.US (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) registers at 15.3%, a moderate reading by the same standard.
QMOM.US carries meaningfully higher annualised volatility than SPY.US — a 6.9% gap that, under normal return distributions, implies a wider range of year-over-year outcomes and a greater likelihood of a 20%-or-more drawdown in any given calendar year.
On the downside, QMOM.US's maximum peak-to-trough drawdown of 27.8% represents a severe bear-market drawdown over the study period. SPY.US's worst drawdown of 23.9% was a severe bear-market drawdown. SPY.US demonstrated stronger capital preservation characteristics, absorbing market shocks with less peak-to-trough damage.
When evaluating these two funds for a US-domiciled portfolio, it is important to consider that volatility and drawdown metrics are calculated on trailing historical data. Past standard deviations do not guarantee future behaviour, particularly around US Federal Reserve policy shifts, which have historically been the primary driver of cross-asset correlation breakdowns.