iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

10-Year Study

TLT.US · · US · ETF

Executive Summary: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has compounded at -1.5% annually over the last 10 years, with a maximum drawdown of 47.6% and an annualized volatility of 12.0%.

1Y CAGR
+3.7%
3Y CAGR
-2.2%
5Y CAGR
-6.3%
10Y CAGR
-1.5%

History & Riski10-year historical performance analysis including CAGR, Max Drawdown, Sharpe & Sortino ratios, annual returns, and rolling volatility — all computed from daily market data.

10-Year Growth of $10,000

Max DrawdownMax DrawdownThe largest peak-to-trough decline in the asset's value over the measurement period.Click for full definition →
47.6%
Sharpe RatioSharpe RatioRisk-adjusted return: how much excess return you earn per unit of total risk (volatility).Click for full definition →
-0.37
Sortino RatioSortino RatioLike Sharpe, but only penalizes downside volatility — a more accurate risk measure for asymmetric return distributions.Click for full definition →
-0.65
Ann. VolatilityAnnualized VolatilityThe annualized standard deviation of an asset's returns — a measure of how much prices fluctuate.Click for full definition →
13.6%
Best YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2020 · +18.2%
Worst YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2022 · -31.2%
% Positive Years% Positive YearsThe percentage of calendar years in the measurement period where the asset delivered a positive return.Click for full definition →
50%

Annual Returns

Rolling 12-Month Returns

Rolling 12-Month Annualised Volatility

Historical Drawdowns

Monthly Returns

Monthly Returns Heatmap

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnn.
2026-0.04.3-4.6-0.1————————-0.6%
20250.55.7-1.2-1.4-3.22.7-1.10.03.61.40.3-2.74.3%
2024-2.2-2.30.8-6.42.91.83.62.12.0-5.52.0-6.4-8.1%
20237.6-4.94.80.3-3.00.2-2.5-3.1-8.0-5.59.98.72.8%
2022-3.9-1.6-5.4-9.4-2.3-1.32.4-4.6-8.2-6.07.2-2.6-31.2%
2021-3.6-5.7-5.22.50.04.43.7-0.3-2.92.52.8-2.0-4.6%
20207.76.66.41.2-1.80.34.4-5.00.8-3.41.7-1.218.2%
20190.4-1.45.6-2.06.81.00.311.0-2.7-1.1-0.4-3.214.1%
2018-3.3-3.02.9-2.12.00.6-1.41.3-2.9-2.91.85.9-1.6%
20170.81.6-0.71.61.90.8-0.73.4-2.3-0.00.71.89.2%
2016———-0.70.86.92.1-1.0-1.5-4.4-8.2-0.5-7.0%

Risk X-RayiA 19-factor macroeconomic risk decomposition showing exactly which market forces (equity beta, rates, inflation, credit, commodity, crypto) drive this asset's volatility. Powered by multivariate regression against daily factor returns.

Risk Profile Insight: This asset has an estimated annualized volatility of 12.0%. The dominant macroeconomic risk driver is TLT.US, accounting for 100.0% of variance. Idiosyncratic stock-specific factors contribute 0.0%.

10-Year Historical Price Series (Growth of $10,000)
DateSimulated Value
2016-03-0110000
2016-04-019926.348365609843
2016-05-0110006.299812911608
2016-06-0110700.151977970718
2016-07-0110925.11950083011
2016-08-0110814.40129206354
2016-09-0110651.278270159652
2016-10-0110184.68082118262
2016-11-019348.139899985454
2016-12-019304.8938912881
2017-01-019380.662182564165
2017-02-019529.299647391044
2017-03-019466.873316580644
2017-04-019615.811727884195
2017-05-019797.34264261101
2017-06-019874.92664429631
2017-07-019809.912173786557
2017-08-0110144.303835562845
2017-09-019908.66274433092
2017-10-019904.840724077223
2017-11-019978.452232270489
2017-12-0110159.321064748634
2018-01-019828.580886889265
2018-02-019529.650751613824
2018-03-019802.167817786938
2018-04-019597.484087455046
2018-05-019789.859106891172
2018-06-019853.077930090132
2018-07-019711.502675915755
2018-08-019838.923414137462
2018-09-019557.287669721272
2018-10-019277.206815434542
2018-11-019443.008260980785
2018-12-019995.756654678964
2019-01-0110033.595658345495
2019-02-019895.491320202034
2019-03-0110446.835297009091
2019-04-0110238.831123884618
2019-05-0110939.083417347558
2019-06-0111043.020298839849
2019-07-0111071.349393843639
2019-08-0112294.636632208296
2019-09-0111965.160429550939
2019-10-0111831.961518977183
2019-11-0111783.790019611677
2019-12-0111407.005030821932
2020-01-0112284.334231156989
2020-02-0113098.354324350079
2020-03-0113933.591144148346
2020-04-0114103.435304031178
2020-05-0113854.953829794702
2020-06-0113901.590502129195
2020-07-0114518.149580430452
2020-08-0113785.475319881025
2020-09-0113892.100656564897
2020-10-0113421.821629023276
2020-11-0113645.143977810212
2020-12-0113477.637168896177
2021-01-0112988.017314453957
2021-02-0112243.425573428432
2021-03-0111601.225855314966
2021-04-0111890.68620812455
2021-05-0111890.947028404331
2021-06-0112416.449734414735
2021-07-0112877.921061739167
2021-08-0112834.113286285366
2021-09-0112461.029939158654
2021-10-0112768.195976345607
2021-11-0113122.058875162384
2021-12-0112857.80780554845
2022-01-0112354.565107262339
2022-02-0112152.82062085258
2022-03-0111491.169728797066
2022-04-0110408.263990249334
2022-05-0110173.72636943186
2022-06-0110044.058564184359
2022-07-0110288.236503804465
2022-08-019819.80328131975
2022-09-019011.130003862145
2022-10-018473.669691178759
2022-11-019079.62542195204
2022-12-018841.73726369432
2023-01-019517.562734800948
2023-02-019055.910839590511
2023-03-019494.159130465312
2023-04-019526.28015107513
2023-05-019239.036770643674
2023-06-019259.089837539059
2023-07-019023.518967151693
2023-08-018739.987259932486
2023-09-018045.0617191065885
2023-10-017605.549453029778
2023-11-018360.31318496672
2023-12-019086.46693852165
2024-01-018882.465353536872
2024-02-018682.40616739646
2024-03-018750.379944926794
2024-04-018186.115332721409
2024-05-018422.448600849671
2024-06-018575.489915785145
2024-07-018886.778919702463
2024-08-019074.398984807218
2024-09-019255.448385171365
2024-10-018750.570544362019
2024-11-018924.467450130662
2024-12-018354.996463878899
2025-01-018396.135847239568
2025-02-018874.470208806697
2025-03-018767.55395719538
2025-04-018648.238710745294
2025-05-018370.575459821137
2025-06-018593.566767483737
2025-07-018495.638783975603
2025-08-018496.712159742388
2025-09-018802.202928209217
2025-10-018923.775273234322
2025-11-018948.071685450741
2025-12-018710.183527193021
2026-01-018707.184093975553
2026-02-019080.45804053749
2026-03-018661.741175998515
2026-04-018655.220669004018
Annual Return Matrix
YearAnnual Return
20170.09182556872147773
2018-0.016099935126296483
20190.14118474717793084
20200.18152285656746514
2021-0.04598946800394477
2022-0.3123448882258997
20230.027678912811878398
2024-0.08050108800173117
20250.042511934606998425
2026-0.006310183708231998
Total Factor Risk
0.12030413321014334
VTI.US Exposure
1.43172116244716e-16
VEA.US Exposure
-8.094761498154292e-17
VWO.US Exposure
4.879139062152691e-17
QQQ.US Exposure
-7.881714550569146e-17
VTV.US Exposure
-5.71410009967364e-17
IJR.US Exposure
-1.917802289460941e-16
QUAL.US Exposure
-6.072172151470495e-17
SHV.US Exposure
2.3226340041979415e-17
TLT.US Exposure
0.9999993090622793
LQD.US Exposure
-3.7644661292384654e-16
HYG.US Exposure
4.679624530430182e-17
GLD.US Exposure
1.6007093121295197e-16
USO.US Exposure
-2.6536765334194142e-17
VNQ.US Exposure
1.2022956192379493e-16
BTC-USD.CC Exposure
1.5647419071254657e-17
CPER.US Exposure
-1.0567197453078662e-16
VIX.INDX Exposure
4.433892657857483e-17
UUP.US Exposure
5.397501558558988e-17
TIP.US Exposure
-1.4451381038736816e-17
Idiosyncratic Exposure
6.909377211536511e-7
Value Score
50
Growth Score
50
Profit Score
37.5
Health Score
23.6
Yield Score
0
Moat Score
40

Factor Risk Decomposition

Share of annualised volatility attributable to each macro factor.

Total Est. Vol
12.0%

FundamentalsiCompany financial health metrics: P/E valuation, dividend yield, Piotroski F-Score (9-point profitability signal), Altman Z-Score (bankruptcy risk proxy), and a radar chart across 6 fundamental dimensions. Note: ETFs may show N/A for some metrics.

Fundamental Dimensions

Core Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)P/E RatioPrice-to-Earnings ratio — the market price of a stock divided by its earnings per share, a key valuation measure.Click for full definition →N/A
Dividend YieldDividend YieldAnnual dividend paid per share divided by the current share price — expressed as a percentage income return.Click for full definition →0.00%
Market Cap$0
Piotroski F-ScorePiotroski F-ScoreA 9-point scoring system evaluating a company's financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.Click for full definition →
9-point profitability signal
0.0/ 9
Weak
Altman Z-ScoreAltman Z-ScoreA bankruptcy prediction model that combines 5 financial ratios into a single score indicating financial distress risk.Click for full definition →
Bankruptcy risk proxy
1.18
Distress Zone
Income Simulation

Based on $10,000 initial investment.

Total Income Generated
$3,124
Avg Yield on Cost
2.84%
Annual Income Simulation Table
Historical Realised Yields
YearAnnual PayoutYield on CostQuality
2016$262.122.62%Solid
2017$309.773.10%Solid
2018$320.613.21%Solid
2019$308.373.08%Solid
2020$237.252.37%Solid
2021$222.42.22%Solid
2022$266.442.66%Solid
2023$335.353.35%Solid
2024$376.683.77%Solid
2025$387.283.87%Solid

Momentum & MacroiPrice momentum indicators relative to key technical levels: distance from 50-Day SMA (intermediate trend), 200-Day SMA (long-term trend), 52-Week High (bullish proximity), and Beta (market sensitivity coefficient).

vs 50-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
-1.7%
Above/below 50-day moving average
vs 200-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
-1.1%
Above/below 200-day moving average
vs 52-Week High52-Week HighThe highest price an asset reached in the past 52 weeks — a key reference for momentum and valuation context.Click for full definition →
4.9% from high
Distance from 52-week high
BetaBetaA measure of an asset's sensitivity to broad market movements relative to a benchmark (e.g. S&P 500).Click for full definition →
2.38
Market sensitivity coefficient

Frequently Asked Questions & Methodology

Is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF a high-risk investment?

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US) has an annualized volatility of 12.0% and experienced a maximum drawdown of 47.6% over the last 10 years. Its primary macro risk driver is TLT.US.

What is the 10-year return of TLT.US?

Over the past 10 years, TLT.US has generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -1.5%. It has had a positive return in 50% of the years measured.

Data Methodology & Trust

The risk and return information on this page is pre-calculated mathematically using daily market data spanning a 10-year period. Fundamentals (such as P/E Ratio, Market Cap, and Dividend Yield) represent trailing averages and may not immediately reflect real-time live market fluctuations. Advanced scoring models like the Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score are proxies applied to publicly available trailing-twelve-month financial statements and may not account for recent off-balance-sheet events, qualitative company shifts, or sector-specific capital structures. Macroeconomic factor exposures are estimated via multivariate regression against standard market indices. This data is provided for quantitative insight and backtesting research, and should not be misconstrued as tailored financial advice.

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