Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)

10-Year Study

GBTC.US · · US · ETF

Executive Summary: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) has compounded at 55.0% annually over the last 10 years, with a maximum drawdown of 83.4% and an annualized volatility of 69.8%.

1Y CAGR
-31.1%
3Y CAGR
+70.4%
5Y CAGR
+17.1%
10Y CAGR
+55.0%

History & Riski10-year historical performance analysis including CAGR, Max Drawdown, Sharpe & Sortino ratios, annual returns, and rolling volatility — all computed from daily market data.

10-Year Growth of $10,000

Max DrawdownMax DrawdownThe largest peak-to-trough decline in the asset's value over the measurement period.Click for full definition →
83.4%
Sharpe RatioSharpe RatioRisk-adjusted return: how much excess return you earn per unit of total risk (volatility).Click for full definition →
1.20
Sortino RatioSortino RatioLike Sharpe, but only penalizes downside volatility — a more accurate risk measure for asymmetric return distributions.Click for full definition →
4.23
Ann. VolatilityAnnualized VolatilityThe annualized standard deviation of an asset's returns — a measure of how much prices fluctuate.Click for full definition →
119.9%
Best YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2017 · +1568.6%
Worst YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2018 · -82.1%
% Positive Years% Positive YearsThe percentage of calendar years in the measurement period where the asset delivered a positive return.Click for full definition →
60%

Annual Returns

Rolling 12-Month Returns

Rolling 12-Month Annualised Volatility

Historical Drawdowns

Monthly Returns

Monthly Returns Heatmap

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnn.
2026-4.4-21.83.211.1————————-14.2%
20258.6-17.2-2.214.011.02.98.2-7.45.6-4.2-17.4-3.7-7.6%
20249.745.714.1-16.914.4-11.49.7-10.28.010.138.6-4.0139.8%
202346.6-5.041.80.4-15.438.2-0.3-2.22.639.413.014.5317.6%
2022-23.412.03.9-13.6-22.1-41.322.7-15.3-9.05.2-24.6-8.4-75.8%
20218.424.515.8-6.4-35.5-1.416.58.7-10.446.8-7.0-25.97.0%
202033.1-9.6-27.738.610.3-11.833.45.6-18.940.250.838.0290.7%
20190.611.87.238.367.336.8-9.8-14.1-9.65.0-13.9-14.4106.6%
2018-29.614.4-41.251.1-22.5-30.522.2-8.8-16.4-15.1-26.0-20.5-82.1%
2017-10.86.01.018.6251.5-19.47.7139.3-30.118.084.333.01568.6%
2016———31.88.953.1-20.5-13.79.819.9-8.723.5123.6%

Risk X-RayiA 19-factor macroeconomic risk decomposition showing exactly which market forces (equity beta, rates, inflation, credit, commodity, crypto) drive this asset's volatility. Powered by multivariate regression against daily factor returns.

Risk Profile Insight: This asset has an estimated annualized volatility of 69.8%. The dominant macroeconomic risk driver is BTC-USD.CC, accounting for 54.3% of variance. Idiosyncratic stock-specific factors contribute 4.5%.

10-Year Historical Price Series (Growth of $10,000)
DateSimulated Value
2016-03-0110000
2016-04-0113180.358829084042
2016-05-0114356.940509915015
2016-06-0121975.448536355052
2016-07-0117463.64494806421
2016-08-0115072.71010387158
2016-09-0116543.909348441928
2016-10-0119833.805476864967
2016-11-0118105.76015108593
2016-12-0122360.71765816808
2017-01-0119943.34277620397
2017-02-0121138.810198300285
2017-03-0121342.77620396601
2017-04-0125312.559017941458
2017-05-0188978.28139754485
2017-06-0171690.27384324835
2017-07-0177203.02171860247
2017-08-01184738.432483475
2017-09-01129040.60434372051
2017-10-01152268.1775259679
2017-11-01280623.22946175636
2017-12-01373102.9272898962
2018-01-01262559.01794145425
2018-02-01300283.2861189802
2018-03-01176666.6666666667
2018-04-01266936.7327667611
2018-05-01206812.0868744098
2018-06-01143658.16808309726
2018-07-01175488.19641170916
2018-08-01159994.3342776204
2018-09-01133720.4910292729
2018-10-01113510.85930122757
2018-11-0184039.66005665725
2018-12-0166776.20396600566
2019-01-0167197.35599622286
2019-02-0175112.37016052881
2019-03-0180502.36071765816
2019-04-01111322.00188857413
2019-05-01186266.28895184136
2019-06-01254812.08687440984
2019-07-01229718.60245514638
2019-08-01197382.43626062325
2019-09-01178351.27478753543
2019-10-01187276.6761095373
2019-11-01161172.80453257792
2019-12-01137932.01133144475
2020-01-01183571.2936732767
2020-02-01165888.57412653445
2020-03-01119911.2370160529
2020-04-01166224.74032105764
2020-05-01183403.21057601512
2020-06-01161762.0396600567
2020-07-01215824.3626062323
2020-08-01227865.91123701606
2020-09-01184751.65250236075
2020-10-01259021.71860245516
2020-11-01390611.8980169972
2020-12-01538927.2898961285
2021-01-01584230.4060434372
2021-02-01727552.4079320114
2021-03-01842747.8753541077
2021-04-01789023.6071765817
2021-05-01508949.95278564683
2021-06-01502043.4372049103
2021-07-01584987.7242681776
2021-08-01636101.983002833
2021-09-01570083.0972615675
2021-10-01836853.6355051935
2021-11-01778413.5977337111
2021-12-01576819.641170916
2022-01-01441920.67988668557
2022-02-01494970.72710103873
2022-03-01514338.05476864974
2022-04-01444277.62039660057
2022-05-01345924.4570349387
2022-06-01203108.59301227573
2022-07-01249254.01322001888
2022-08-01211191.69027384327
2022-09-01192160.52880075542
2022-10-01202098.2058545798
2022-11-01152415.48630783756
2022-12-01139616.6194523135
2023-01-01204623.22946175636
2023-02-01194351.27478753543
2023-03-01275525.9678942399
2023-04-01276536.3550519358
2023-05-01233928.2341831917
2023-06-01323187.9131255902
2023-07-01322177.52596789424
2023-08-01315104.8158640227
2023-09-01323187.9131255902
2023-10-01450677.99811142584
2023-11-01509371.104815864
2023-12-01583051.9357884798
2024-01-01639807.3654390936
2024-02-01932175.6373937677
2024-03-011063875.3541076488
2024-04-01884345.6090651558
2024-05-011012003.777148253
2024-06-01896640.2266288953
2024-07-01983380.5476864967
2024-08-01882908.4041548631
2024-09-01953729.9338999056
2024-10-011050236.071765817
2024-11-011455901.7941454204
2024-12-011397922.568460812
2025-01-011518602.4551463646
2025-02-011257979.225684608
2025-03-011230783.7582625118
2025-04-011402644.0037771482
2025-05-011557507.0821529746
2025-06-011602077.431539188
2025-07-011733333.3333333335
2025-08-011605099.1501416431
2025-09-011695372.9933899904
2025-10-011624551.4636449479
2025-11-011341076.4872521248
2025-12-011291029.2728989613
2026-01-011234560.9065155808
2026-02-01965627.9508970728
2026-03-01996411.7091595846
2026-04-011107459.8677998113
Annual Return Matrix
YearAnnual Return
201715.685641891891894
2018-0.8210247117302261
20191.0655862888172405
20202.9071951803929625
20210.07031069308457316
2022-0.757954463601658
20233.176092631920678
20241.397595278661337
2025-0.07646582004863545
2026-0.14218841427735518
Total Factor Risk
0.6984098880640415
VTI.US Exposure
-0.035139975013030754
VEA.US Exposure
-0.02053751782026516
VWO.US Exposure
0.0062373473381572495
QQQ.US Exposure
0.028726791508821747
VTV.US Exposure
0.01013475559642776
IJR.US Exposure
-0.007832473886472797
QUAL.US Exposure
0.003064757441234312
SHV.US Exposure
0.39985598760578267
TLT.US Exposure
-0.008060188058457067
LQD.US Exposure
0.008381951432373939
HYG.US Exposure
-0.006397611164949671
GLD.US Exposure
0.0003527582821859342
USO.US Exposure
-0.000044671788797036206
VNQ.US Exposure
0.0167970688643115
BTC-USD.CC Exposure
0.5429610362702129
CPER.US Exposure
-0.0027727578299227753
VIX.INDX Exposure
0.008763623139614611
UUP.US Exposure
0.008532383630099309
TIP.US Exposure
0.001679577920999551
Idiosyncratic Exposure
0.045297156531673856
Value Score
50
Growth Score
50
Profit Score
37.5
Health Score
23.6
Yield Score
0
Moat Score
40

Factor Risk Decomposition

Share of annualised volatility attributable to each macro factor.

Total Est. Vol
69.8%

FundamentalsiCompany financial health metrics: P/E valuation, dividend yield, Piotroski F-Score (9-point profitability signal), Altman Z-Score (bankruptcy risk proxy), and a radar chart across 6 fundamental dimensions. Note: ETFs may show N/A for some metrics.

Fundamental Dimensions

Core Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)P/E RatioPrice-to-Earnings ratio — the market price of a stock divided by its earnings per share, a key valuation measure.Click for full definition →N/A
Dividend YieldDividend YieldAnnual dividend paid per share divided by the current share price — expressed as a percentage income return.Click for full definition →0.00%
Market Cap$0
Piotroski F-ScorePiotroski F-ScoreA 9-point scoring system evaluating a company's financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.Click for full definition →
9-point profitability signal
0.0/ 9
Weak
Altman Z-ScoreAltman Z-ScoreA bankruptcy prediction model that combines 5 financial ratios into a single score indicating financial distress risk.Click for full definition →
Bankruptcy risk proxy
1.18
Distress Zone
Income Simulation

Based on $10,000 initial investment.

Total Income Generated
$0
Avg Yield on Cost
0.00%

Momentum & MacroiPrice momentum indicators relative to key technical levels: distance from 50-Day SMA (intermediate trend), 200-Day SMA (long-term trend), 52-Week High (bullish proximity), and Beta (market sensitivity coefficient).

vs 50-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
+8.2%
Above/below 50-day moving average
vs 200-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
-21.9%
Above/below 200-day moving average
vs 52-Week High52-Week HighThe highest price an asset reached in the past 52 weeks — a key reference for momentum and valuation context.Click for full definition →
40.4% from high
Distance from 52-week high
BetaBetaA measure of an asset's sensitivity to broad market movements relative to a benchmark (e.g. S&P 500).Click for full definition →
1.00
Market sensitivity coefficient

Frequently Asked Questions & Methodology

Is Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) a high-risk investment?

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC.US) has an annualized volatility of 69.8% and experienced a maximum drawdown of 83.4% over the last 10 years. Its primary macro risk driver is BTC-USD.CC.

What is the 10-year return of GBTC.US?

Over the past 10 years, GBTC.US has generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 55.0%. It has had a positive return in 60% of the years measured.

Data Methodology & Trust

The risk and return information on this page is pre-calculated mathematically using daily market data spanning a 10-year period. Fundamentals (such as P/E Ratio, Market Cap, and Dividend Yield) represent trailing averages and may not immediately reflect real-time live market fluctuations. Advanced scoring models like the Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score are proxies applied to publicly available trailing-twelve-month financial statements and may not account for recent off-balance-sheet events, qualitative company shifts, or sector-specific capital structures. Macroeconomic factor exposures are estimated via multivariate regression against standard market indices. This data is provided for quantitative insight and backtesting research, and should not be misconstrued as tailored financial advice.

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