Canadian Natural Resources Ltd

10-Year Study

CNQ.TO · Energy · CA · Common Stock

Executive Summary: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd has compounded at 18.1% annually over the last 10 years, with a maximum drawdown of 90.1% and an annualized volatility of 235.6%.

1Y CAGR
-35.3%
3Y CAGR
-5.0%
5Y CAGR
+31.3%
10Y CAGR
+18.1%

History & Riski10-year historical performance analysis including CAGR, Max Drawdown, Sharpe & Sortino ratios, annual returns, and rolling volatility — all computed from daily market data.

10-Year Growth of $10,000

Max DrawdownMax DrawdownThe largest peak-to-trough decline in the asset's value over the measurement period.Click for full definition →
90.1%
Sharpe RatioSharpe RatioRisk-adjusted return: how much excess return you earn per unit of total risk (volatility).Click for full definition →
2.82
Sortino RatioSortino RatioLike Sharpe, but only penalizes downside volatility — a more accurate risk measure for asymmetric return distributions.Click for full definition →
10.58
Ann. VolatilityAnnualized VolatilityThe annualized standard deviation of an asset's returns — a measure of how much prices fluctuate.Click for full definition →
354.4%
Best YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2023 · +108.1%
Worst YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2025 · -46.1%
% Positive Years% Positive YearsThe percentage of calendar years in the measurement period where the asset delivered a positive return.Click for full definition →
70%

Annual Returns

Rolling 12-Month Returns

Rolling 12-Month Annualised Volatility

Historical Drawdowns

Monthly Returns

Monthly Returns Heatmap

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnn.
20268.917.913.7-6.5————————36.5%
20256.56.01.4-2.2-2.1-0.75.4-0.55.0-1.63.5-55.9-46.1%
2024-2.62.33.71.0-2.4-1.211.43.96.90.97.3-5.227.8%
20238.6117.03.53.8-10.32.05.2-6.4-6.00.92.3-6.0108.1%
202221.0196.210.5-62.0166.2-4.72.1-64.0145.3-53.3-1.7-5.349.7%
2021453.6-79.5447.1-80.113.57.3-8.51.412.1308.8-72.43.482.4%
2020-11.4-7.2-42.121.17.9-4.90.38.8-15.6-0.739.84.6-20.7%
20197.16.0-0.9407.3-80.4430.1-82.5-4.8549.1-83.711.714.332.8%
2018-6.5-5.32.814.4-3.16.50.7-6.8-4.5-14.4-7.6-0.4-24.2%
2017-8.1-3.215.0-0.1-10.4-3.21.90.99.47.7-2.83.37.7%
2016———7.33.44.3-0.83.03.61.56.5-5.125.6%

Risk X-RayiA 19-factor macroeconomic risk decomposition showing exactly which market forces (equity beta, rates, inflation, credit, commodity, crypto) drive this asset's volatility. Powered by multivariate regression against daily factor returns.

Risk Profile Insight: This asset has an estimated annualized volatility of 235.6%. The dominant macroeconomic risk driver is SHV.US, accounting for 11.2% of variance. Idiosyncratic stock-specific factors contribute 48.3%.

10-Year Historical Price Series (Growth of $10,000)
DateSimulated Value
2016-03-0110000
2016-04-0110725.851834371086
2016-05-0111092.998348067602
2016-06-0111566.24975039483
2016-07-0111473.396627153412
2016-08-0111818.759416922321
2016-09-0112240.909833536041
2016-10-0112424.80076969158
2016-11-0113230.344727431153
2016-12-0112557.499954617242
2017-01-0111545.010619565415
2017-02-0111178.227167934358
2017-03-0112859.839889629133
2017-04-0112842.049848421588
2017-05-0111501.170875161108
2017-06-0111128.57843048269
2017-07-0111339.699021547733
2017-08-0111440.811806778369
2017-09-0112511.935665402001
2017-10-0113479.042242271318
2017-11-0113101.820756258283
2017-12-0113530.324759017554
2018-01-0112647.811643400439
2018-02-0111973.06079474286
2018-03-0112303.174977762448
2018-04-0114071.196471036725
2018-05-0113636.792709713725
2018-06-0114525.65941147639
2018-07-0114632.762720787117
2018-08-0113640.877157950152
2018-09-0113021.311743242508
2018-10-0111145.279285493854
2018-11-0110302.88452811008
2018-12-0110259.589376803964
2019-01-0110985.25968014232
2019-02-0111642.49278414145
2019-03-0111539.836985132608
2019-04-0158542.580829351464
2019-05-0111483.2900684372
2019-06-0160869.236620170144
2019-07-0110623.559097427704
2019-08-0110108.737088605298
2019-09-0165620.56958579086
2019-10-0110670.575634904786
2019-11-0111923.684353840286
2019-12-0113622.814820193511
2020-01-0112072.449035162563
2020-02-0111206.364478007516
2020-03-016489.371358033656
2020-04-017858.024579301832
2020-05-018478.316118140396
2020-06-018062.519287672228
2020-07-018089.930473614464
2020-08-018805.435039119937
2020-09-017432.878900648066
2020-10-017384.0470528436845
2020-11-0110320.311507252165
2020-12-0110796.195109553979
2021-01-0159765.1647461487
2021-02-0112250.25868172164
2021-03-0167017.52146081495
2021-04-0113324.196271352588
2021-05-0115127.61631600922
2021-06-0116235.046381178863
2021-07-0114853.232160037756
2021-08-0115062.537440775499
2021-09-0116882.20451286147
2021-10-0169022.70450640861
2021-11-0119044.05758164358
2021-12-0119693.303320202587
2022-01-0123823.588142392942
2022-02-0170567.68217472333
2022-03-0177947.0477345778
2022-04-0129586.109245375497
2022-05-0178757.78949173934
2022-06-0175078.3070296226
2022-07-0176685.10984214103
2022-08-0127621.30811262185
2022-09-0167743.64143681954
2022-10-0131667.907128723655
2022-11-0131125.31087189355
2022-12-0129471.10933614101
2023-01-0132011.00078058344
2023-02-0169468.66544802142
2023-03-0171900.84917034999
2023-04-0174620.41455536384
2023-05-0166897.61752131146
2023-06-0168249.7794061127
2023-07-0171802.34304621269
2023-08-0167203.30158723715
2023-09-0163176.26043475476
2023-10-0163747.02119142575
2023-11-0165218.297581765546
2023-12-0161316.40248730843
2024-01-0159722.320641400904
2024-02-0161103.289941064104
2024-03-0163359.77613217217
2024-04-0163966.2830127656
2024-05-0162430.67467914036
2024-06-0161658.51131337206
2024-07-0168688.28227421439
2024-08-0171358.87505396293
2024-09-0176276.78551105098
2024-10-0176977.05498713256
2024-11-0182622.96898196617
2024-12-0178349.76985446032
2025-01-0183420.24188770787
2025-02-0188443.09166326177
2025-03-0189717.5912505446
2025-04-0187760.92376949968
2025-05-0185877.99219072644
2025-06-0185289.4691698437
2025-07-0189897.54064540098
2025-08-0189485.94778070158
2025-09-0193950.84778936685
2025-10-0192459.60010468526
2025-11-0195716.4099271557
2025-12-0142196.88855809901
2026-01-0145954.580935610946
2026-02-0154159.783615008986
2026-03-0161593.47940530434
2026-04-0157608.873236879845
Annual Return Matrix
YearAnnual Return
20170.07746962436122606
2018-0.2417336937928074
20190.3278128704637544
2020-0.20749160492511065
20210.8240966488995005
20220.496504108881914
20231.0805597029941083
20240.27779463041194496
2025-0.4614293234494191
20260.3652398365239835
Total Factor Risk
2.355660555931367
VTI.US Exposure
0.00809676542598674
VEA.US Exposure
-0.0029898601278025333
VWO.US Exposure
0.03807858041003214
QQQ.US Exposure
0.03130313343862525
VTV.US Exposure
-0.00027286442947183325
IJR.US Exposure
0.05174740352861097
QUAL.US Exposure
0.049512699361507685
SHV.US Exposure
0.1123429974428254
TLT.US Exposure
0.0332564118731352
LQD.US Exposure
0.008617754670414845
HYG.US Exposure
0.09277927433649585
GLD.US Exposure
-0.00011072839143916903
USO.US Exposure
0.01251217910900567
VNQ.US Exposure
0.04912897248390173
BTC-USD.CC Exposure
-0.0027664248813049487
CPER.US Exposure
-0.0017389890614903792
VIX.INDX Exposure
0.03315820958499968
UUP.US Exposure
0.00040175443350529643
TIP.US Exposure
0.0036816458982484213
Idiosyncratic Exposure
0.483261084894214
Value Score
44.9
Growth Score
50
Profit Score
37.5
Health Score
23.6
Yield Score
43.7
Moat Score
40

Factor Risk Decomposition

Share of annualised volatility attributable to each macro factor.

Total Est. Vol
235.6%

FundamentalsiCompany financial health metrics: P/E valuation, dividend yield, Piotroski F-Score (9-point profitability signal), Altman Z-Score (bankruptcy risk proxy), and a radar chart across 6 fundamental dimensions. Note: ETFs may show N/A for some metrics.

Fundamental Dimensions

Core Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)P/E RatioPrice-to-Earnings ratio — the market price of a stock divided by its earnings per share, a key valuation measure.Click for full definition →12.8x
Dividend YieldDividend YieldAnnual dividend paid per share divided by the current share price — expressed as a percentage income return.Click for full definition →3.64%
Market Cap$138.0B
Piotroski F-ScorePiotroski F-ScoreA 9-point scoring system evaluating a company's financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.Click for full definition →
9-point profitability signal
0.0/ 9
Weak
Altman Z-ScoreAltman Z-ScoreA bankruptcy prediction model that combines 5 financial ratios into a single score indicating financial distress risk.Click for full definition →
Bankruptcy risk proxy
1.18
Distress Zone
Income Simulation

Based on $10,000 initial investment.

Total Income Generated
$1,101
Avg Yield on Cost
5.50%
Annual Income Simulation Table
Historical Realised Yields
YearAnnual PayoutYield on CostQuality
2025$533.75.34%Solid
2026$567.285.67%Solid

Momentum & MacroiPrice momentum indicators relative to key technical levels: distance from 50-Day SMA (intermediate trend), 200-Day SMA (long-term trend), 52-Week High (bullish proximity), and Beta (market sensitivity coefficient).

vs 50-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
+2.3%
Above/below 50-day moving average
vs 200-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
-19.7%
Above/below 200-day moving average
vs 52-Week High52-Week HighThe highest price an asset reached in the past 52 weeks — a key reference for momentum and valuation context.Click for full definition →
39.8% from high
Distance from 52-week high
BetaBetaA measure of an asset's sensitivity to broad market movements relative to a benchmark (e.g. S&P 500).Click for full definition →
0.93
Market sensitivity coefficient

Frequently Asked Questions & Methodology

Is Canadian Natural Resources Ltd a high-risk investment?

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ.TO) has an annualized volatility of 235.6% and experienced a maximum drawdown of 90.1% over the last 10 years. Its primary macro risk driver is SHV.US.

What is the 10-year return of CNQ.TO?

Over the past 10 years, CNQ.TO has generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.1%. It has had a positive return in 70% of the years measured.

Data Methodology & Trust

The risk and return information on this page is pre-calculated mathematically using daily market data spanning a 10-year period. Fundamentals (such as P/E Ratio, Market Cap, and Dividend Yield) represent trailing averages and may not immediately reflect real-time live market fluctuations. Advanced scoring models like the Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score are proxies applied to publicly available trailing-twelve-month financial statements and may not account for recent off-balance-sheet events, qualitative company shifts, or sector-specific capital structures. Macroeconomic factor exposures are estimated via multivariate regression against standard market indices. This data is provided for quantitative insight and backtesting research, and should not be misconstrued as tailored financial advice.

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