Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC)

10-Year Study

BTC.US · · US · ETF

Executive Summary: Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) has compounded at 8.4% annually over the last 10 years, with a maximum drawdown of 43.9% and an annualized volatility of 53.9%.

1Y CAGR
-30.0%
3Y CAGR
+8.4%
5Y CAGR
+8.4%
10Y CAGR
+8.4%

History & Riski10-year historical performance analysis including CAGR, Max Drawdown, Sharpe & Sortino ratios, annual returns, and rolling volatility — all computed from daily market data.

10-Year Growth of $10,000

Max DrawdownMax DrawdownThe largest peak-to-trough decline in the asset's value over the measurement period.Click for full definition →
43.9%
Sharpe RatioSharpe RatioRisk-adjusted return: how much excess return you earn per unit of total risk (volatility).Click for full definition →
0.32
Sortino RatioSortino RatioLike Sharpe, but only penalizes downside volatility — a more accurate risk measure for asymmetric return distributions.Click for full definition →
0.60
Ann. VolatilityAnnualized VolatilityThe annualized standard deviation of an asset's returns — a measure of how much prices fluctuate.Click for full definition →
46.1%
Best YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2025 · +-7.5%
Worst YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2026 · -13.9%
% Positive Years% Positive YearsThe percentage of calendar years in the measurement period where the asset delivered a positive return.Click for full definition →
0%

Annual Returns

Rolling 12-Month Returns

Rolling 12-Month Annualised Volatility

Historical Drawdowns

Monthly Returns

Monthly Returns Heatmap

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnn.
2026-4.3-21.73.311.2————————-13.9%
20257.5-17.1-2.314.311.03.28.3-7.35.6-4.0-17.4-3.6-7.5%
2024———————-10.28.310.338.8-2.844.6%

Risk X-RayiA 19-factor macroeconomic risk decomposition showing exactly which market forces (equity beta, rates, inflation, credit, commodity, crypto) drive this asset's volatility. Powered by multivariate regression against daily factor returns.

Risk Profile Insight: This asset has an estimated annualized volatility of 53.9%. The dominant macroeconomic risk driver is BTC-USD.CC, accounting for 74.5% of variance. Idiosyncratic stock-specific factors contribute 0.0%.

10-Year Historical Price Series (Growth of $10,000)
DateSimulated Value
2024-07-0110000
2024-08-018981.467088104737
2024-09-019724.165328082629
2024-10-0110725.944349448158
2024-11-0114885.054493324355
2024-12-0114463.616422267129
2025-01-0115548.3012936767
2025-02-0112895.314092267303
2025-03-0112605.14361711315
2025-04-0114408.3458555711
2025-05-0115990.465827244936
2025-06-0116494.8097483462
2025-07-0117859.301863654422
2025-08-0116556.989135879234
2025-09-0117489.679948874727
2025-10-0116795.34345475586
2025-11-0113876.366651121822
2025-12-0113378.931550857556
2026-01-0112808.953831804756
2026-02-0110024.699034492289
2026-03-0110359.776845086966
2026-04-0111523.913156122078
Annual Return Matrix
YearAnnual Return
2025-0.0749940291378075
2026-0.1386522075910147
Total Factor Risk
0.5394031402091427
VTI.US Exposure
-0.13107020512278253
VEA.US Exposure
-0.03757810027086174
VWO.US Exposure
0.022773996511335097
QQQ.US Exposure
0.1041364881673758
VTV.US Exposure
0.11437270353049246
IJR.US Exposure
-0.01880864119410066
QUAL.US Exposure
-0.012831885536587432
SHV.US Exposure
0.10159601951497167
TLT.US Exposure
-0.0021436191999252715
LQD.US Exposure
0.03439982186579763
HYG.US Exposure
0.02524054907917919
GLD.US Exposure
0.0015287709184218475
USO.US Exposure
0.0007688617831058722
VNQ.US Exposure
-0.0009392160020387096
BTC-USD.CC Exposure
0.7449474948060419
CPER.US Exposure
-0.0030672467315367275
VIX.INDX Exposure
0.029328005597296924
UUP.US Exposure
0.005345807927965159
TIP.US Exposure
0.021743604004089683
Idiosyncratic Exposure
0.00025679035175975377
Value Score
50
Growth Score
50
Profit Score
37.5
Health Score
23.6
Yield Score
0
Moat Score
40

Factor Risk Decomposition

Share of annualised volatility attributable to each macro factor.

Total Est. Vol
53.9%

FundamentalsiCompany financial health metrics: P/E valuation, dividend yield, Piotroski F-Score (9-point profitability signal), Altman Z-Score (bankruptcy risk proxy), and a radar chart across 6 fundamental dimensions. Note: ETFs may show N/A for some metrics.

Fundamental Dimensions

Core Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)P/E RatioPrice-to-Earnings ratio — the market price of a stock divided by its earnings per share, a key valuation measure.Click for full definition →N/A
Dividend YieldDividend YieldAnnual dividend paid per share divided by the current share price — expressed as a percentage income return.Click for full definition →0.00%
Market Cap$0
Piotroski F-ScorePiotroski F-ScoreA 9-point scoring system evaluating a company's financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.Click for full definition →
9-point profitability signal
0.0/ 9
Weak
Altman Z-ScoreAltman Z-ScoreA bankruptcy prediction model that combines 5 financial ratios into a single score indicating financial distress risk.Click for full definition →
Bankruptcy risk proxy
1.18
Distress Zone
Income Simulation

Based on $10,000 initial investment.

Total Income Generated
$0
Avg Yield on Cost
0.00%

Momentum & MacroiPrice momentum indicators relative to key technical levels: distance from 50-Day SMA (intermediate trend), 200-Day SMA (long-term trend), 52-Week High (bullish proximity), and Beta (market sensitivity coefficient).

vs 50-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
+8.4%
Above/below 50-day moving average
vs 200-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
-21.4%
Above/below 200-day moving average
vs 52-Week High52-Week HighThe highest price an asset reached in the past 52 weeks — a key reference for momentum and valuation context.Click for full definition →
40.0% from high
Distance from 52-week high
BetaBetaA measure of an asset's sensitivity to broad market movements relative to a benchmark (e.g. S&P 500).Click for full definition →
1.00
Market sensitivity coefficient

Frequently Asked Questions & Methodology

Is Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) a high-risk investment?

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) (BTC.US) has an annualized volatility of 53.9% and experienced a maximum drawdown of 43.9% over the last 10 years. Its primary macro risk driver is BTC-USD.CC.

What is the 10-year return of BTC.US?

Over the past 10 years, BTC.US has generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.4%. It has had a positive return in 0% of the years measured.

Data Methodology & Trust

The risk and return information on this page is pre-calculated mathematically using daily market data spanning a 10-year period. Fundamentals (such as P/E Ratio, Market Cap, and Dividend Yield) represent trailing averages and may not immediately reflect real-time live market fluctuations. Advanced scoring models like the Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score are proxies applied to publicly available trailing-twelve-month financial statements and may not account for recent off-balance-sheet events, qualitative company shifts, or sector-specific capital structures. Macroeconomic factor exposures are estimated via multivariate regression against standard market indices. This data is provided for quantitative insight and backtesting research, and should not be misconstrued as tailored financial advice.

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