Bitcoin

10-Year Study

BTC-USD.CC · · · Crypto

Executive Summary: Bitcoin has compounded at 64.7% annually over the last 10 years, with a maximum drawdown of 75.6% and an annualized volatility of 46.2%.

1Y CAGR
-30.7%
3Y CAGR
+41.4%
5Y CAGR
+15.2%
10Y CAGR
+64.7%

History & Riski10-year historical performance analysis including CAGR, Max Drawdown, Sharpe & Sortino ratios, annual returns, and rolling volatility — all computed from daily market data.

10-Year Growth of $10,000

Max DrawdownMax DrawdownThe largest peak-to-trough decline in the asset's value over the measurement period.Click for full definition →
75.6%
Sharpe RatioSharpe RatioRisk-adjusted return: how much excess return you earn per unit of total risk (volatility).Click for full definition →
1.45
Sortino RatioSortino RatioLike Sharpe, but only penalizes downside volatility — a more accurate risk measure for asymmetric return distributions.Click for full definition →
3.38
Ann. VolatilityAnnualized VolatilityThe annualized standard deviation of an asset's returns — a measure of how much prices fluctuate.Click for full definition →
73.6%
Best YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2017 · +1368.9%
Worst YearBest & Worst YearThe single calendar year with the highest and lowest return in the measured period.Click for full definition →
2018 · -73.6%
% Positive Years% Positive YearsThe percentage of calendar years in the measurement period where the asset delivered a positive return.Click for full definition →
60%

Annual Returns

Rolling 12-Month Returns

Rolling 12-Month Annualised Volatility

Historical Drawdowns

Monthly Returns

Monthly Returns Heatmap

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnn.
2026-10.2-14.81.89.6————————-14.5%
20259.6-17.6-2.214.111.12.48.0-6.55.4-3.9-17.5-3.2-6.3%
20240.843.716.6-15.011.3-7.13.1-8.77.410.937.4-3.1121.1%
202339.80.023.02.8-7.012.0-4.1-11.34.028.68.812.1155.4%
2022-16.912.25.4-17.2-15.7-37.818.0-14.1-3.15.5-16.2-3.6-64.3%
202114.236.330.5-2.0-35.4-6.118.813.3-7.240.0-7.0-18.859.7%
202030.0-8.0-25.134.59.3-3.423.93.2-7.727.842.447.8303.2%
2019-7.611.56.530.360.226.2-6.8-4.5-13.910.9-17.7-5.092.2%
2018-27.81.7-32.932.5-18.9-14.521.5-9.5-5.9-4.6-36.4-6.8-73.6%
20170.721.6-9.225.869.68.515.963.6-7.849.158.238.31368.9%
2016———7.618.526.7-7.2-7.96.015.06.429.2131.3%

Risk X-RayiA 19-factor macroeconomic risk decomposition showing exactly which market forces (equity beta, rates, inflation, credit, commodity, crypto) drive this asset's volatility. Powered by multivariate regression against daily factor returns.

Risk Profile Insight: This asset has an estimated annualized volatility of 46.2%. The dominant macroeconomic risk driver is BTC-USD.CC, accounting for 100.0% of variance. Idiosyncratic stock-specific factors contribute 0.0%.

10-Year Historical Price Series (Growth of $10,000)
DateSimulated Value
2016-03-0110000
2016-04-0110758.022334939344
2016-05-0112751.355949478864
2016-06-0116157.670063423215
2016-07-0114990.102066758405
2016-08-0113809.261641714114
2016-09-0114631.450646250114
2016-10-0116820.811085683657
2016-11-0117893.90639993865
2016-12-0123126.371620960992
2017-01-0123286.188531165724
2017-02-0128315.043100969568
2017-03-0125719.113117057914
2017-04-0132344.521307940162
2017-05-0154865.629478083814
2017-06-0159531.25567541269
2017-07-0168997.83938573927
2017-08-01112864.47769726966
2017-09-01104113.46271240202
2017-10-01155218.37553208068
2017-11-01245569.65110295004
2017-12-01339702.7866533622
2018-01-01245269.6959790487
2018-02-01249512.27999870462
2018-03-01167339.67925890448
2018-04-01221740.0209265301
2018-05-01179833.17339630233
2018-06-01153673.00907713914
2018-07-01186702.62753656096
2018-08-01168876.65446925248
2018-09-01158989.6536572658
2018-10-01151599.95922483213
2018-11-0196400.02062403288
2018-12-0189811.37142740207
2019-01-0182974.61215388482
2019-02-0192501.00775195225
2019-03-0198514.9643460642
2019-04-01128398.23114119245
2019-05-01205757.2563631291
2019-06-01259572.89981506058
2019-07-01242018.85768833398
2019-08-01231101.35741464782
2019-09-01199023.05006072595
2019-10-01220757.00866644003
2019-11-01181643.94729103145
2019-12-01172620.5498297271
2020-01-01224379.1355420616
2020-02-01206357.33388150655
2020-03-01154504.35909226286
2020-04-01207774.2153434764
2020-05-01227031.44800037207
2020-06-01219279.03540677586
2020-07-01271722.5418571067
2020-08-01280297.75659978756
2020-09-01258789.08059816383
2020-10-01330694.3978775378
2020-11-01470949.5822350488
2020-12-01695937.1570091371
2021-01-01794625.7024859168
2021-02-011083144.4426699674
2021-03-011413840.4613420593
2021-04-011385796.9280826664
2021-05-01895854.4603037554
2021-06-01840854.2942878247
2021-07-01998879.2545286696
2021-08-011131831.178135498
2021-09-011050824.2818474695
2021-10-011471434.8459507113
2021-11-011367925.5568786198
2021-12-011111188.4627332403
2022-01-01923456.87361674
2022-02-011036482.5492860376
2022-03-011092764.758283491
2022-04-01905021.6133691297
2022-05-01762901.3014516211
2022-06-01474762.40696396126
2022-07-01560001.7130132731
2022-08-01481122.3361328772
2022-09-01466293.184886372
2022-10-01491824.9999378709
2022-11-01411983.9365043737
2022-12-01397080.481821631
2023-01-01555259.741774899
2023-02-01555453.3803246653
2023-03-01683381.3902735622
2023-04-01702346.2914461213
2023-05-01653174.0856278662
2023-06-01731344.6147630583
2023-07-01701417.7224204267
2023-08-01622262.2531737195
2023-09-01647133.1740357418
2023-10-01831902.2442781935
2023-11-01904970.5544400283
2023-12-011014212.7199855082
2024-01-011021829.6780492686
2024-02-011468541.481961818
2024-03-011711751.4561550294
2024-04-011455066.8710750134
2024-05-011619508.3890111134
2024-06-011504053.9893294778
2024-07-011550630.0027954835
2024-08-011415065.8536669135
2024-09-011519680.5966429927
2024-10-011684912.3764942342
2024-11-012314431.078919081
2024-12-012241965.448423801
2025-01-012457353.006978866
2025-02-012024649.3413871226
2025-03-011980877.505215121
2025-04-012260637.258612918
2025-05-012510938.5301756025
2025-06-012570863.4029862024
2025-07-012777781.3121646894
2025-08-012597292.4582023076
2025-09-012736936.536175063
2025-10-012628954.621241897
2025-11-012169138.976473181
2025-12-012099897.7106156987
2026-01-011886624.5557791237
2026-02-011607660.1039764388
2026-03-011637354.5364109573
2026-04-011794456.032554289
Annual Return Matrix
YearAnnual Return
201713.688978981271177
2018-0.7356177960381381
20190.9220344493822012
20203.03160085920019
20210.5966793144207005
2022-0.6426524436323661
20231.5541741949459342
20241.2105475550097973
2025-0.06336749654548968
2026-0.14545550315012856
Total Factor Risk
0.4624066427862865
VTI.US Exposure
-1.0256208389049309e-16
VEA.US Exposure
1.283405627152392e-16
VWO.US Exposure
-3.0504063343505866e-17
QQQ.US Exposure
4.3568487593318553e-17
VTV.US Exposure
2.027806244233026e-17
IJR.US Exposure
-1.0248383929179502e-17
QUAL.US Exposure
-2.3495221985121226e-17
SHV.US Exposure
1.857025582748573e-17
TLT.US Exposure
2.9373578148988977e-18
LQD.US Exposure
-2.1079191013497368e-17
HYG.US Exposure
2.4373707661287376e-17
GLD.US Exposure
4.353439562236478e-18
USO.US Exposure
-6.269509309616045e-18
VNQ.US Exposure
-2.5909817866970427e-17
BTC-USD.CC Exposure
0.9999999532316689
CPER.US Exposure
-4.019421114473065e-17
VIX.INDX Exposure
7.987903623799973e-17
UUP.US Exposure
-6.536182258416346e-18
TIP.US Exposure
8.197120124457607e-18
Idiosyncratic Exposure
4.6768330945797345e-8
Value Score
50
Growth Score
50
Profit Score
37.5
Health Score
23.6
Yield Score
0
Moat Score
40

Factor Risk Decomposition

Share of annualised volatility attributable to each macro factor.

Total Est. Vol
46.2%

FundamentalsiCompany financial health metrics: P/E valuation, dividend yield, Piotroski F-Score (9-point profitability signal), Altman Z-Score (bankruptcy risk proxy), and a radar chart across 6 fundamental dimensions. Note: ETFs may show N/A for some metrics.

Fundamental Dimensions

Core Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)P/E RatioPrice-to-Earnings ratio — the market price of a stock divided by its earnings per share, a key valuation measure.Click for full definition →N/A
Dividend YieldDividend YieldAnnual dividend paid per share divided by the current share price — expressed as a percentage income return.Click for full definition →0.00%
Market Cap$0
Piotroski F-ScorePiotroski F-ScoreA 9-point scoring system evaluating a company's financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.Click for full definition →
9-point profitability signal
0.0/ 9
Weak
Altman Z-ScoreAltman Z-ScoreA bankruptcy prediction model that combines 5 financial ratios into a single score indicating financial distress risk.Click for full definition →
Bankruptcy risk proxy
1.18
Distress Zone
Income Simulation

Based on $10,000 initial investment.

Total Income Generated
$0
Avg Yield on Cost
0.00%

Momentum & MacroiPrice momentum indicators relative to key technical levels: distance from 50-Day SMA (intermediate trend), 200-Day SMA (long-term trend), 52-Week High (bullish proximity), and Beta (market sensitivity coefficient).

vs 50-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
+6.9%
Above/below 50-day moving average
vs 200-Day SMAMoving Averages (SMA)A rolling average of an asset's price over a defined window — used to identify trends and momentum signals.Click for full definition →
-14.0%
Above/below 200-day moving average
vs 52-Week High52-Week HighThe highest price an asset reached in the past 52 weeks — a key reference for momentum and valuation context.Click for full definition →
40.1% from high
Distance from 52-week high
BetaBetaA measure of an asset's sensitivity to broad market movements relative to a benchmark (e.g. S&P 500).Click for full definition →
1.00
Market sensitivity coefficient

Frequently Asked Questions & Methodology

Is Bitcoin a high-risk investment?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD.CC) has an annualized volatility of 46.2% and experienced a maximum drawdown of 75.6% over the last 10 years. Its primary macro risk driver is BTC-USD.CC.

What is the 10-year return of BTC-USD.CC?

Over the past 10 years, BTC-USD.CC has generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 64.7%. It has had a positive return in 60% of the years measured.

Data Methodology & Trust

The risk and return information on this page is pre-calculated mathematically using daily market data spanning a 10-year period. Fundamentals (such as P/E Ratio, Market Cap, and Dividend Yield) represent trailing averages and may not immediately reflect real-time live market fluctuations. Advanced scoring models like the Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score are proxies applied to publicly available trailing-twelve-month financial statements and may not account for recent off-balance-sheet events, qualitative company shifts, or sector-specific capital structures. Macroeconomic factor exposures are estimated via multivariate regression against standard market indices. This data is provided for quantitative insight and backtesting research, and should not be misconstrued as tailored financial advice.

Run a Full Backtest on Bitcoin

stresstest.pro lets you simulate DCA vs Lump Sum, Monte Carlo projections, portfolio optimisation, and more — all in seconds.

Start a Free Backtest