The 2020 COVID Crash
The 'Speed' Crash: A -34% drop in just 33 days.
Fastest Bear Market Ever
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a total market panic. In February 2020, the S&P 500 went from an all-time high to a bear market (-20%) in a record-breaking 16 trading days. This speed tested the emotional limits of even the most experienced investors.
Why it was unique
Unlike the multi-year 2008 grind, the 2020 crash was a "V-shaped" recovery. Massive central bank intervention meant that assets recovered nearly as fast as they fell. This event is the perfect stress test for "Stop-Loss" strategies that often fail during rapid rebounds.
High Volatility (VIX)
The VIX (fear index) hit its highest level since 2008. If you have "high beta" stocks, this window shows your absolute worst-case volatility.
Technology Outperformance
COVID changed the market structure. Tech grew while energy and tourism cratered. Stress test your sector concentration using our tool.
Simulation vs Reality
Most simulators didn't expect a 10% daily drop four times in one month. Replaying 2020 proves why **Historical Simulation** is often more valuable than **Monte Carlo**, as it captures the real-world tail risks that math models often miss.
What actually happened
Three real portfolios through COVID-19 Crash, measured from Jan 2, 2020 to Dec 31, 2020. Drawdown is peak-to-trough; recovery is the first close back at the prior peak. Values are per $10,000 invested at the start of the window.
| Portfolio | Max drawdown | $10,000 at trough | Recovered | Days to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Equity | -33.7% | $6,903 | Aug 10, 2020 | 140 |
| Classic 60/40 | -20.9% | $8,157 | Jul 20, 2020 | 119 |
| Defensive 30/40/30 | -14.1% | $9,376 | Apr 16, 2020 | 29 |
The spread is the point: 100% Equity fell 33.7% while Defensive 30/40/30 fell 14.1% and was whole again in 29 days against 140. Diversification did not prevent the loss; it changed how deep it went and how long it took to undo.
Run your own portfolio through this windowCharted windows on these pages cover the last ten years. The backtest tool goes back further.
Simulate the COVID Era
Black Swan Analyst
How would your current portfolio have handled the sudden stay-at-home rotation? See your drawdown and recovery speed in the COVID stress test.
Run COVID Replay